#美联储货币政策 The Federal Reserve minutes haven't been released yet, but the probability of a rate cut is already rising—this signal is very dangerous.

Looking at CME data, the probability of an 25 basis point rate cut on January 25th increased from 15.5% to 18.3%, while Polymarket remains at 13%. The discrepancy between the two markets itself indicates a problem: retail investors are chasing high expectations of rate cuts in the options market, while institutional players remain cautious about the prediction market. This is a classic case of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) at work.

I've seen too many people get caught like this. Every time expectations for a rate cut heat up, big influencers start storytelling—"Liquidity easing is coming" "The crypto market is about to take off." And then? After funds pour in, the whales dump, new retail investors buy in, and in the end, it's a mess.

The key point is, the Federal Reserve minutes haven't been published yet, but the market is betting on a rate cut unilaterally. What does this mean? It means that once hawkish signals appear, it's time to sell in the opposite direction. Market turning points often occur when consensus is at its strongest.

The real way to live is: don't trade based on expectations. Wait for the minutes to be released, observe the actual stance, not guesses. When a rate cut happens, you won't miss it because the market will give a real reaction. Jumping in now is essentially betting on a 18% probability event.

Some money can't be earned, but not earning is the prerequisite for surviving longer.