#美联储货币政策 Seeing the expectations for rate cuts rise again, market sentiment is fluctuating accordingly. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of tomorrow's meeting, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January has increased from 15.5% to 18.3%. These numbers actually reflect everyone's expectations for liquidity.

But I want to remind you not to be carried away by the ups and downs of market sentiment. Rising expectations for rate cuts often mean that some will leverage up or chase high positions, and at such times, it's even more important to stay calm. My experience is that the more turbulent the market, the more you need to review your positions. Does your asset allocation still match your risk tolerance? Have you left enough buffer for the worst-case scenario?

In the long run, the Federal Reserve's policy direction will indeed influence market rhythm, but this should not be a reason for frequent portfolio adjustments. Instead of guessing each policy shift, it's better to focus on building a robust asset allocation system—allowing different asset classes to perform their roles in various cycles.

This process may seem less exciting, but true security comes from thorough preparation and rational discipline.