Tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court will announce its ruling on the tariffs implemented during the Trump era. Market expectations suggest a 76% probability that the ruling will deem the tariffs illegal, and many see this as a positive signal. But the issue isn't that simple.

If the ruling truly finds the tariffs illegal, the U.S. Treasury would need to compensate hundreds of billions of dollars, plus additional losses across the supply chain, potentially creating a funding gap in the trillions. How to fill such a huge hole? There are only two options: one is to issue debt, and the other is to tighten liquidity. Either way, the result is the same—the money in the market is being pulled upward.

The crypto market appears independent, but in reality, it shares the same liquidity pool as traditional finance. Lessons from history—such as balance sheet reduction in 2018 and aggressive rate hikes in 2022—are still relevant. Every time liquidity tightens, crypto prices tend to fall. This time is no different. Tariffs and trade issues don't directly hit crypto prices; they first impact liquidity—without liquidity, no asset can withstand the pressure.

In the short term, be mentally prepared. Volatility may increase, and during this period, avoid blindly chasing gains. The key indicators to watch are the U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index after the ruling, as these can give early signals about where funds are flowing.

In this market driven by emotions and capital manipulation, understanding the macro logic is crucial for survival. Stay alert, wait for clarity, and sometimes the safest way to profit is to remain patient.