Analysts point out that the geopolitical alliance between ASEAN and BRICS countries is exposing Southeast Asian nations to serious tariff risks. The United States, citing Indonesia's membership in BRICS, has threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on top of the original 32%, while also levying tariffs of 36%, 24%, and 46% on Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam respectively. Experts warn that whether ASEAN can maintain strategic autonomy by 2026 depends on its ability to effectively manage structural dependencies in its supply chains and uphold digital sovereignty, rather than solely focusing on military issues, as ASEAN's traditional "non-alignment" policy is facing pressure from great power competition.