2026-01-15 10:30:23

This wave of the market has left many people a bit confused, and some are even starting to doubt: Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin really useless? Has the super cycle appeared, making all the previous rules invalid?

I have re-analyzed Bitcoin's candlestick charts over the past ten years, and the results are quite interesting. The cycle is still there, and it's even more precise than you think, but its temperament has changed.

Everyone says Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, but has anyone calculated exactly how many days it spans? Look at these peaks—2013 to 2017, and then to 2021. The time intervals between each bull market top are all between 1430 days and 1460 days. It’s almost like a clock.

Following this timeline forward, the next cycle peak should be around October 2025, and the next one after that around September 2029. So don’t rush to declare the cycle dead; the main framework’s time anchors haven’t moved at all.

However, there is a subtle point—while the timing hasn’t changed, the story of the rises and falls has.

**The strength of each rally is weaker than the last**

Why does this bull market always feel less intense than previous ones? The data makes it clear. In 2013, Bitcoin increased by nearly 1500% (specifically 1497%). By 2017, this increase shrank to 248%. In the last cycle of 2021, the growth further declined.

This is not an accident; it’s inevitable. As market capitalization grows and the market becomes heavier, it requires more capital to move it. A few tens of millions of dollars could double the price early on, but at this scale, the ceiling for growth naturally lowers.

The rhythm of the cycle is still there, but the script is definitely being rewritten.

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ChainDoctor

· 50m ago

1430 days to 1460 days with this level of precision, I accept it, but the problem is that the gains are decreasing with each cycle. Is this still called a cycle? This time really feels different. The clock is still ticking, but the story has lost its excitement. Let's wait until October 2025. If you don't believe in cycles, then believe in the data. The market cap is too large; it's really immovable, and the capital volume simply can't keep up. I just want to ask, if this continues, will the cycle eventually evolve into a pure time cycle, with the gains dropping to zero? No doubt about it, but if I had known it would turn out like this, I might as well have gone all-in on the clone. From 1500% to 248%, this recession speed is a bit frightening. It's good that the cycle is still there; anyway, I can sit through ten years.

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CountdownToBroke

· 2h ago

I need to remember the number 1430 days, it's more accurate than my wife's cycle haha

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not_your_keys

· 01-15 11:00

The interval from 1430 to 1460 days is too absolute—even a clock isn't that precise... Indeed, once the position gets larger, the enthusiasm isn't quite the same, but as long as the framework remains, there's still hope.

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GasFeeVictim

· 01-15 10:55

1430 to 1460 days? Bro, your data is a bit extreme. I thought the cycle should have ended by now. Got it, so after making more money, it's not as easy to earn anymore. That's tough. Peak in October 2025? Then I have to hold on for another two years to escape the top. Life is tough. The increase is getting weaker each time, which means they are squeezing the bubble for the main players. So ultimately, it's still because the market cap is too large, and there's no way to have another 1000% crazy surge.

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0xSherlock

· 01-15 10:49

1430 days to 1460 days? Wow, this precision is a bit scary, feels more accurate than fortune-telling.

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