Looking at this set of data, my pessimism about brokerage stocks has actually eased a bit.

Comparing the performance of the two cyclical stocks is quite interesting. Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit in 2025 is expected to be between 20 billion and 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71%, and the stock price has risen by 210%. During the same period, CITIC Securities' performance is projected to grow by 38.46%, with a growth rate only about ten percentage points lower than Luoyang Molybdenum, yet its stock price has fallen by 0.71%.

This is ridiculous. The performance growth is close, but the rise and fall are worlds apart—one up 210%, the other down 0.71%.

Some say this is normal because they are both cyclical stocks. Once commodity prices pull back, Luoyang Molybdenum's performance can't hold up either. This logic does hold. But the key point is: CITIC Securities still expects growth in 2026, yet its stock price has fallen by 1.5%. During the same period, Luoyang Molybdenum rose by 20.25%.

Cyclical stocks are cyclical—why is one market still undervalued while the other is being driven to the sky? Perhaps the market has already priced in the pessimistic expectations for brokerages, while the optimism for commodities hasn't fully reflected in the pricing yet. Or, in fact, the real opportunities are in those places that have been mispriced.