#DeFi生态发展 Seeing this report from Cantor Fitzgerald, I can't help but think back to the real winter of 2018. At that time, prices fell from their highs, exchanges experienced failures, project teams ran away, and there were daily claims that "cryptocurrency is dead." Looking back now, the projects that survived that cycle have become the pillars of today's DeFi ecosystem.

This time, the prediction of another winter in 2026 may seem like a familiar tune, but the analyst's insights are worth deep consideration—the current downturn may not be accompanied by large-scale liquidations and systemic collapses. Why? Because the players have changed. From retail-led to institution-led, this is a qualitative shift. Institutions have risk control requirements, audit standards, and won't gamble all in like gamblers.

What's even more interesting is that "divergence"—the gap between token prices and on-chain fundamentals—is widening, especially in DeFi, asset tokenization, and infrastructure sectors. This precisely indicates that the true builders are accelerating during price declines. How many teams continued to iterate, improve compliance, and build infrastructure during the 2023 bear market? It now appears they are all preparing for institutional entry.

Having experienced several cycles, my deepest understanding is: when winter comes, the projects that truly survive are not the ones with the most funding, but those with real users, real transactions, and real value. If prices really drop to $75,000, it will be a good time to test the health of the DeFi ecosystem. Projects that rely on rising prices to attract liquidity will be exposed, but protocols with genuine product strength will hold firm.

The passage of the Clear Digital Asset Act and the gradual clarification of US regulations are changing the game. Winter may indeed arrive, but this winter won't freeze this ecosystem—on the contrary, it might freeze out some things that never should have existed.