I recently came across an analysis article about the crypto market that’s worth spending ten minutes to read carefully. It can significantly enhance your understanding of the current market conditions.

The core insight is quite sobering: after Bitcoin’s mainstreaming, the classic bull market script from the past has become completely ineffective.

Let’s first look at the past year’s institutional entry, the integration of TradFi, Circle’s IPO, and political figures’ endorsements—according to the old playbook, these should all be typical opening sequences for a high-beta bull market. But what’s the reality? Volatility has collapsed entirely, and BTC’s performance in 2025 has actually lagged behind gold, US stocks, and even A-shares. It’s almost like all the scripts were correct, but the ending is frustrating.

Even more bizarre is the emergence of a historic split in the capital structure. On-chain spot ETFs (DAT) are buying aggressively, while CEXs are selling into rallies. What about retail investors? They’re largely absent; exchange traffic has plummeted noticeably, and even Korean retail investors have shifted to betting on the stock market.

The real structural buyers are actually DAT funds. Through NAV premium arbitrage, they’ve formed a positive feedback loop of “buy more as prices rise,” increasing their BTC holdings by 890,000 coins over two years. Interestingly, non-institutional funds dominate within ETFs, while hedge funds have already been quietly reducing their positions.

On the sell side, the players are also very aggressive. OG-level whales are quite clever, gracefully exiting through “paper Bitcoin” (like spot funds such as IBIT). What about miners? They’re no longer just mining; they’re shifting towards AI computing power, with an expected 20% of mining capacity to flow into AI by 2027.

The biggest impact of this is that the previous “four-year halving cycle” analytical framework has completely failed. What we now need to focus on is the dual-axis driver of “macro liquidity + DAT/ETF premium.” The key variables in the future will surface one by one in 2026: Will DTCC truly implement on-chain settlement? Can the AI narrative withstand scrutiny? Will BTC decouple from altcoins?

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s mainstreaming is not the end of the bull market but rather the “coming of age” for the entire crypto industry. Institutions are chasing the financial attributes of paper Bitcoin, which is unavoidable. But the true vitality still lies in the native on-chain consensus—those old stories, community cohesion, and the most genuine dissemination power.

For small and medium investors, there’s no need to copy institutional allocation logic. Instead, those community-driven native assets—like various Meme coins—may be able to develop entirely independent market trends based on genuine community engagement and recognition, especially in the new market landscape where BTC decouples from altcoins. After all, the original purpose of cryptocurrencies is distributed consensus; institutions can define financialized value, but they can never define the wild vitality of the community.