#加密货币ETF Seeing the net outflow data of Bitcoin ETFs over the past couple of days, I couldn't help but recall the scene from 2021. Back then, just before the market top, it was the same rhythm—rebound, hope, another rebound, then disappointment. History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes.

The current situation is essentially a choice for capital. Over the past two weeks, ETF net outflows have approached 1 billion, and more importantly, on-chain capital flow has turned negative to -4.5 billion USD. This is not minor fluctuation; it’s a directional signal. The fact that Bitcoin has repeatedly been blocked near 90,000 USD four times indicates how heavy the selling pressure is at this level.

I’ve seen too many leveraged-driven rebounds mistaken for the start of a new cycle. Every time, someone says "this time is different," but capital flow never lies. Coinbase premium index has fallen to -0.08, clearly showing the sentiment of US investors. The attitude of institutions is even more straightforward—spot ETF outflows indicate large funds are watching, not building positions.

Holding steady above 84,000 USD is the baseline, but the real turning point depends on whether the 90,000 to 92,000 USD range can be effectively broken through. It’s not about one or two attempts, but whether there is an influx of new capital at that time. If leverage is still doing the work, then it’s just another dead cat bounce.

The year-end period is often a risk-avoidance window, as institutions are clearing risk exposures. The true market start in the new year hinges on one keyword—capital reflow. When ETF turns positive again with net inflows, that will be the moment to seriously turn bullish.