#DeFi生态发展 Seeing the growth forecasts for the prediction market this year, my first reaction is to stay calm. The projection of a $95.5 billion market size by 2035 and a 47% CAGR—these numbers are indeed eye-catching, and the weekly trading volume on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surpassing $2 billion also indicates that the sector is heating up.

But I want to remind everyone that such emerging sectors are often like early DeFi—opportunities and risks coexist. Behind the seemingly high growth, we need to ask ourselves a few questions: Is our risk tolerance truly suitable for participation? Do we really understand how prediction markets operate and their potential risks?

The entry of major institutions—Robinhood and ICE investing $2 billion to boost valuations—certainly boosts confidence, but it also often means the market is evolving rapidly. Although regulatory attitudes have improved, friction still exists in places like Texas and New York, reminding us that compliance uncertainties remain.

Rather than chasing hot topics, it's better to ask yourself: what percentage of my assets does this represent? Can I withstand a 50% loss? If the answer is no, then even the best growth story is irrelevant to you. The truly prudent approach is to stay sober amid the hype, participate within your risk capacity, and learn rather than be blinded by numbers.

In the long run, every wave in the DeFi ecosystem leaves behind value, but those who survive to see that day are often those who are not greedy and understand risk management.