#美联储货币政策 CME data shows the probability of a 25bp rate cut in January rising to 18.3%, a significant rebound from last week's 15.5%. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction market still maintains a 13% probability, with a 5.3% difference between the two markets.

From an on-chain capital flow perspective, increased expectations of rate cuts typically trigger reallocation by institutional funds. Attention should be paid to the market's specific reaction after the release of the FOMC minutes—especially the positioning activity of large wallets in mainstream assets. Historical experience indicates that shifts in rate cut expectations are often accompanied by whales pre-positioning their addresses.

Key monitoring points include: first, large on-chain transfer activities within 24 hours after the minutes are released, especially the fund flows from exchange cold wallets; second, changes in open interest of futures contracts, which reflect the strength of market expectations; third, the scale of stablecoin inflows into trading pairs, usually indicating the preparedness of leveraged funds.

The rise in the probability of rate cuts itself is a neutral signal; the key lies in the subsequent implementation of policies and the sustainability of market sentiment. Current data still requires confirmation of the trend through detailed minutes.