2026-01-15 09:41:08

#Strategy加仓BTC ⚠️ Tomorrow, after the US court's tariff ruling is announced, there might be some movement in the crypto circle.

$BTC $ETH

The market is currently buzzing with rumors that there is a 76% chance the court will rule that Trump's tariffs are illegal. Many are speculating this as good news and buying in, but the situation might not be that simple.

What if they actually rule it illegal? The US Treasury would have to pay out hundreds of billions. Including various losses along the supply chain, the financial gap could easily exceed one trillion dollars. How to fill such a huge gap? There are only two options—issue more debt or tighten the market’s liquidity.

It may sound distant, but it actually has a pretty direct impact on crypto prices. Just look at history. During the 2018 balance sheet reduction and the aggressive rate hikes in 2022, every liquidity tightening caused crypto assets to retrace. The logic this time is similar—funds are being drained from certain areas, which acts like a bloodsucker. It’s not directly about trade crashing the coin prices, but liquidity—the invisible hand—is manipulating the market.

In the short term, we need to stay alert. Volatility might increase, and chasing rallies is best avoided. The key is to watch two things—US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. These usually react first to where the funds are flowing.

In the crypto market, it’s really just emotions and funds dancing. Understanding this macro logic helps avoid getting caught off guard. Staying calm and waiting often proves more reliable than reckless moves.

BTC2,6%

ETH3,55%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GasWrangler

· 01-17 23:55

honestly the 76% odds feel like copium tbh. if they actually rule against tariffs you're looking at massive fiscal pressure, and we all know what happens next—liquidity dries up and alts get absolutely decimated. happened in 2018, happened in 2022, will happen again. data doesn't lie. people chasing this as a "bullish event" are demonstrably misreading the macro mechanics here

Reply0

FloorPriceWatcher

· 01-17 22:17

Once again, it's the same narrative about trillion-dollar holes, which is getting tiresome. However, we do need to pay attention to liquidity, as 2018 and 2022 were no small matters.

View OriginalReply0

BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-15 10:08

76% probability? This data needs to be discounted; history shows that probabilities often move in the opposite direction in the end. The key is the liquidity supply line. Once the fiscal gap widens, the bloodletting will not spare any assets. I experienced that during the 2022 cycle. Short-term fluctuations are nothing to fear; the main thing is not to be dragged in by emotions. The more the US Treasury yields fluctuate, the more you need to stay calm.

View OriginalReply0

nft_widow

· 01-15 10:00

Another wave of the "history repeating itself" argument... It sounds quite accurate, but it feels a bit too pessimistic. Liquidity tightening has already been priced in, hasn't it?

View OriginalReply0

MoonWaterDroplets

· 01-15 09:59

76% this probability, I wonder who calculated it? Anyway, I don't believe in predictions that are precise to the single digit. There's nothing wrong with the discussion on liquidity, but if we really tighten up, can BTC outperform the US stock market? It doesn't seem to have happened many times in history. But speaking of which, if the verdict result tomorrow turns out to be true, we really need to watch how the US bond yields move, that's the key.

View OriginalReply0

HodlVeteran

· 01-15 09:58

76%？Come on, I heard about this probability in 2018 too, and it still ended up being a harvest. I’ve heard a lot about US bonds and the US dollar index, but the key is that even if you understand it, it’s useless; funds still get pulled out of your pocket. The phrase about increased short-term volatility is always the same, I'm tired of hearing it. It's still better to just hold your own chips steadily than anything else.

View OriginalReply0

PumpDetector

· 01-15 09:52

nah this liquidity squeeze angle hits different... been here since mt gox, seen this movie before

Reply0

IfIWereOnChain

· 01-15 09:46

Liquidity is the real killer. With a 76% probability, that thing is better just to listen to, but the key still depends on how U.S. Treasury yields move.

View OriginalReply0