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The power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve has intensified again. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari recently issued a warning: if central bank decisions are subjected to political interference, global financial markets will face severe shocks. Currently, US core inflation remains at 3%, and policy disagreements between the White House and the Fed have increased by 200%. The market generally expects limited room for rate cuts, with actual reductions potentially more aggressive but also more cautious.
Behind this controversy lie three real dilemmas:
First, the independence of the central bank is at a dangerous tipping point. The personnel change of the Fed Chair in 2025 has become a focal point, and the credibility of the dollar is gradually turning into a political bargaining chip. Second, market volatility is expected to rise significantly. Historical experience shows that political pressure often triggers volatility surges of around 40%, posing substantial threats to investor psychology and asset allocation. Third, a new consensus is forming—when the effectiveness of traditional financial tools declines, capital is accelerating to flow into areas with transparent rules and permissionless verification.
As the fiat system faces a trust test, 2026 will become a critical year. Investors are seeking new asset safe havens. Whether to support the central bank’s independence or to endorse more radical systemic reforms, the market is making its own choices. What’s your view?