Yesterday afternoon's pullback actually came quite timely. If the market had continued to rise all morning with unstoppable momentum, it would have been easier to accumulate risks—skipping necessary adjustments would inevitably lead to a price to pay later.
The trigger for this wave of adjustment was the change in the margin financing guarantee ratio to 100%. On the surface, tightening margin financing might seem to have a draining effect on the market, but the reality is more complex. Currently, the market’s margin maintenance ratio remains at 288%, and most financing accounts do not even meet the new 100% standard. The actual amount of affected funds is not as large as one might imagine.
What is truly worth noting is the change in attitude behind this. Since the market reversal in mid-December, this is the first time a restrictive policy has been explicitly announced, coupled with regulatory signals in the evening targeting some stocks with rapid gains. The market’s cooling intention is now very clear.
A few days ago, I mentioned that the most ideal scenario would be for the adjustment to last for a period, allowing those impulsive follow-up traders to calm down. The morning’s trend sounds comfortable, but it’s not good news for the broader market; the afternoon’s correction, while unpleasant for many, definitely adds to the market’s subsequent stability.
The key points to observe now are: how long will the main index and major sectors need to adjust? How deep will the correction be? How will the trading volume change? These details will determine how high the market can go next. From the index itself, there’s not much problem; spending more time consolidating the bottom is actually healthier. However, the volatility during this period and the flow of funds between sectors do increase uncertainty.
Starting from December 17 at 3815 points, the main index has risen over 300 points. I’ve been saying to hold. But from today onward, I will no longer give uniform trading advice—there are more variables in the market now, so it’s better for everyone to make decisions based on their own understanding and risk tolerance.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
12 Likes
Reward
12
4
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
AirdropLicker
· 01-15 10:00
Just grind it down, anyway you can't run away, let's see who can endure until the end.
View OriginalReply0
Rekt_Recovery
· 01-15 10:00
honestly the whole "margin tightening isn't that bad" thing is cope we tell ourselves before getting liquidated lmao... been there, done that, got the ptsd to prove it
Reply0
ApyWhisperer
· 01-15 09:57
Bottoming out is supposed to be like this, no need to rush
---
Getting shaken out by follow-on traders is actually better for the future market
---
The way they cut financing is clever, timely cooling-off
---
Now everyone should handle it on their own, it's really hard to give unified advice
---
A rise of over 300 points, if it needs to be adjusted, go ahead, no problem
---
Changes in attitude are more worth paying attention to than the policies themselves
---
With larger volatility, it's indeed harder to operate, make your own decisions
View OriginalReply0
PebbleHander
· 01-15 09:41
Bottoming out is the key; there's no need to rush.
Yesterday afternoon's pullback actually came quite timely. If the market had continued to rise all morning with unstoppable momentum, it would have been easier to accumulate risks—skipping necessary adjustments would inevitably lead to a price to pay later.
The trigger for this wave of adjustment was the change in the margin financing guarantee ratio to 100%. On the surface, tightening margin financing might seem to have a draining effect on the market, but the reality is more complex. Currently, the market’s margin maintenance ratio remains at 288%, and most financing accounts do not even meet the new 100% standard. The actual amount of affected funds is not as large as one might imagine.
What is truly worth noting is the change in attitude behind this. Since the market reversal in mid-December, this is the first time a restrictive policy has been explicitly announced, coupled with regulatory signals in the evening targeting some stocks with rapid gains. The market’s cooling intention is now very clear.
A few days ago, I mentioned that the most ideal scenario would be for the adjustment to last for a period, allowing those impulsive follow-up traders to calm down. The morning’s trend sounds comfortable, but it’s not good news for the broader market; the afternoon’s correction, while unpleasant for many, definitely adds to the market’s subsequent stability.
The key points to observe now are: how long will the main index and major sectors need to adjust? How deep will the correction be? How will the trading volume change? These details will determine how high the market can go next. From the index itself, there’s not much problem; spending more time consolidating the bottom is actually healthier. However, the volatility during this period and the flow of funds between sectors do increase uncertainty.
Starting from December 17 at 3815 points, the main index has risen over 300 points. I’ve been saying to hold. But from today onward, I will no longer give uniform trading advice—there are more variables in the market now, so it’s better for everyone to make decisions based on their own understanding and risk tolerance.