Bitcoin has fallen from $126,000 to $80,000, a 37% correction. Looking ahead, every correction in recent years has hovered around 30% to 31%, and the stories after each correction are equally exciting—either a 120% surge in three months or a more steady increase of over 70%.

Is there a logic behind this? Actually, it’s just one sentence: the most intense market moves in a bull market never happen at the start or halfway point, but at the tail end.

Bitcoin is currently in this stage. Institutions are accumulating, countries are strategizing, funds are increasing their positions, and debt issues need to be addressed. Retail investors wanting to escape at this point often become the final bagholders. A 150% to 200% increase in three months? Completely possible. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin’s next move could very well target $180,000 to $240,000.

Historical data is the most convincing: at the end of the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin surged from $2,800 to $20,000 in three months; during the 2019 bear-to-bull transition, it jumped from $3,300 to $14,000 in three months; at the end of the 2021 bull market, it rose from $13,000 to $58,000 in three months; during the 2023 bear market reversal, it increased from $34,000 to $64,000 in three months; after consolidation in 2024, it went from $49,000 to $100,000 in three months.

Notice this rhythm: each major upward wave in every cycle erupts within a three-month window. The moment of celebration often comes right at the point of despair and silence.

What’s the current market situation? On the surface, it looks somewhat weak, but that’s precisely the fake weakness that the main players love. ETFs are quietly accumulating, broad money supply is expanding, the Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs, but gold is starting to top out. The most interesting thing is the Federal Reserve—saying they want to tighten policy, but actually operating quite loosely. Behind this contradiction is a typical signal of the late stage of a bull market.

Looking back at 2017 and 2021, investors also thought the market had peaked. When Bitcoin was around $31,000, everyone was shouting that it was doomed, but some saw that it could rise above $100,000. When Ethereum was at $2,200, the entire community was panicking, yet some predicted the next major wave could reach $3,800, short-term targets of $5,000, and mid-term of $12,000.

None of these are divine predictions—just an understanding of historical cycles. Every bull market works this way: the later it gets, the more ordinary investors don’t understand and fear the most, which is actually when the biggest opportunities arise. Don’t believe it? Just wait and see.