The Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding a new variable to the direction of monetary policy.

The seemingly calm surface is quite misleading. Long-term interest rates are relatively stable, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising, so small that it’s almost impossible to see any signs of “threats to central bank independence.” Traders are not in collective panic; it’s not that the risks have disappeared, but rather everyone is waiting to see how the political cards will be played — this is not genuine confidence, just a temporary wait-and-see approach.

A top U.S. bank analysis team pointed out a detail: last year, when Trump hinted at possibly removing Powell, the daily fluctuation in long-term yields was much more dramatic. This time, the reaction is so mild, which reflects two changes — first, Powell’s recent attitude towards these rumors has become more assertive; second, the market is starting to bet on a higher probability of his remaining in office. In other words, investors are betting that “Powell might stay,” so there’s no significant re-pricing of systemic risk for now.

But what these analysts are truly worried about is not Powell’s personal fate, but the psychological game sparked within the Fed by the “criminal investigation.” When political pressure approaches under the guise of an investigation, the Fed might actually take more hawkish actions to prove that it “only looks at data, not politics.” In one sentence: the greater the external pressure, the more the Fed’s resistance might strengthen. That is the real hidden concern.