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US CPI data arrived as expected, with the year-over-year growth rate stable at 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the core CPI appears a bit weak—only 2.6% year-over-year. The key is the month-over-month data, which only increased by 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. This detail is enough to sway market sentiment.
The subsequent chain reaction quickly manifested: traders began repricing, dovish expectations heated up, and the two-year Treasury yield fell accordingly. On the crypto side, Bitcoin clearly felt the influx of buying pressure, gaining significant support.
Next week, there are a bunch of data points to watch: the US will release Producer Price Index, retail sales, and existing home sales data, while the UK’s GDP will also be announced. The market rhythm will be continuously driven by these figures.