The investment banking team at TD Cowen recently adjusted their expectations for Strategy. According to The Block, this company focused on Bitcoin accumulation has been reevaluated, with its one-year target price lowered from $500 to $440.

Why the price cut? Essentially, it’s a matter of share dilution. Strategy plans to raise funds by issuing more common and preferred shares, which, while speeding up the buying process, will dilute earnings per share.

LD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza’s team provided new data: they now expect Strategy to accumulate approximately 155,000 Bitcoins in fiscal year 2026, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 90,000. Sounds aggressive? The issue is that this money will be raised through issuing new stock, resulting in dilution of Bitcoin yields.

What do the specific numbers look like? The analysts’ model shows that the Bitcoin yield in fiscal year 2026 will drop to 7.1%, well below the previous estimate of 8.8%, and significantly lower than the actual 22.8% in fiscal year 2025. Based on their 5x valuation multiple, the corresponding Bitcoin dollar gains drop from $9.4 billion to $6.315 billion — this is the source of the $440 target price.