Recently, this political drama has been dazzling everyone. I initially thought Powell would step down as Federal Reserve Chair in May, but a judicial investigation storm directly changed the entire situation.

The key is that market forecast data shows that after Powell steps down, he is very likely to remain at the Fed as a board member until 2028. What does this mean? It means that those hoping for "significant rate cuts after a change in leadership" may be disappointed. If Powell indeed stays on, to maintain the Fed's independence and credibility, policies will become even more cautious—essentially, possibly more hawkish than they are now.

On Trump's side, the plan to exert pressure for rate cuts through personnel adjustments is now quite difficult to push forward. Even more interesting, the previously favored Haskett now has a lower approval rating than the more hawkish Waugh. This reversal indicates that the market and decision-makers are still deeply concerned about a "hard landing."

For our crypto market, this policy environment is actually a double-edged sword. In the short term, hawkish expectations mean interest rates may stay high, which is not very friendly to risk assets; in the long term, policy stability can provide the market with a more certain framework.

What do you think of this situation? Does Powell's remaining in office affect your investment strategy?