Whale's $34.11 million HYPE long position was liquidated, revealing market divergence behind a 45-day loss of $7.169 million

A certain whale closed a $34.11 million HYPE long position after holding for 45 days, incurring a loss of $7.169 million. This transaction occurred on the afternoon of January 15th, during a period of recent downward pressure on HYPE. Interestingly, at the same time, other institutions and whales continued to accumulate HYPE, forming a stark contrast. This reflects that market opinions on HYPE are not uniform and warrants further observation.

Current Market Status and Recent Trends of HYPE

HYPE is the token of the Hyperliquid platform, launched on July 15, 2024. It is currently ranked 15th by market cap, with an estimated market value of about $760 million. From its price performance, HYPE is facing clear downward pressure:

The current trading price of HYPE is $25.14, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $239 million. This downward trend is key to understanding the whale’s loss-making trade.

Details of the Whale’s Loss-Making Trade

Address 0xbd8c7 closed this long position at 15:51 on January 15th, after holding for 45 days. Let’s look at the key metrics of this trade:

• Position size: $34.11 million
• Loss amount: $7.169 million
• Loss rate: approximately 21%
• Holding duration: 45 days

This means the whale endured a loss exceeding seven figures within 45 days. Simple calculation suggests the average cost basis of this position was around $31.8 (34.11 million divided by 1.08 million HYPE tokens), while the current price is $25.14, already below the cost basis.

Market Divergence: Losers vs. Accumulators

Interestingly, while this whale closed its position at a loss, there is a clear divergence in the market:

Institutions continue to buy

• Dragonfly Capital withdrew 25,989.71 HYPE (about $650,000) from CEX on January 15th
• Arthur Hayes bought back 19,227 HYPE (about $49,900) after three months
• Grayscale included HYPE in its Q1 “Under Consideration Assets” list, indicating potential institutional investment products
• Selini Capital withdrew 500,000 HYPE (about $12.1 million) from OKX and staked it into HyperCore

Whale divergence operations

• “Shanzhai Air Force Leader” partially took profits on short positions on HYPE while reducing PUMP shorts
• An address increased its HYPE holdings by $1.5 million to lower the average price, currently with an unrealized loss of $95,000
• Whale 0xBADBB’s $300 million long position has broken even, including $20.86 million worth of HYPE

This market divergence indicates that different participants have markedly different expectations for HYPE. Institutions and some whales remain optimistic about the long-term prospects, while the whale that closed at a loss may be under short-term pressure or adjusting its strategy.

Personal Viewpoint

From on-chain data, HYPE is currently in an interesting phase: short-term downward pressure and loss-making trades are emerging, but signals of long-term institutional accumulation remain strong. The $7.169 million loss may be a normal part of market adjustment rather than a sign of long-term bearishness. However, if similar large-scale loss trades continue to occur, it could further weaken market confidence.

Summary

This whale’s loss-making trade reflects the current market dilemma for HYPE: short-term pressure but sustained long-term accumulation. Key points to observe include: firstly, the 21% loss over 45 days indicates recent downward pressure on HYPE, warranting attention to potential fundamental changes; secondly, ongoing institutional and whale buying suggests confidence in the long-term outlook, which could support a rebound; thirdly, market divergence is evident, showing significant differences in participant judgments on HYPE. Future focus should be on the support levels in this price range and whether institutional accumulation can offset short-term selling pressure.