#加密市场周期与情绪 Seeing institutions start to talk bullish about the 2026 bull market again, I need to calmly pour some cold water. Delphi and Grayscale's logic sounds very smooth—fundamentals are improving, regulations are advancing, government debt issues are increasing safe-haven demand, and Bitcoin reaching new highs is highly probable. But there is a deadly trap here that many new investors are likely to fall into.

Market cycles are like a pendulum; every time it swings in one direction, institutions come out to tell a story. They said the same in 2021—fundamentals, institutional entry, friendly regulations. And what happened? A 50% crash in 2022. Predicting correctly doesn't necessarily mean you'll make money; the key is where you enter, whether you use leverage, and whether your mindset can hold up.

The most worth listening to is the institution's advice: "Don't use leverage." I've seen too many people believe in the bull market narrative and go in with leverage, only to be wiped out by a forced liquidation event in October. That's not the market's fault; it's a misjudgment of your own risk tolerance.

So my advice is simple: if you truly believe in the long-term prospects, dollar-cost average, hold spot assets, and buy in stages. A new high in the first half of 2026? It might happen, or the market might still drop 30% along the way. Anyway, surviving longer is much more important than making a big profit from a single surge. This is a principle understood by those who have survived in this market for over a decade.