#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 $ETH $BTC

Ethereum 2026 Outlook: The Deepening Crisis in Layer2 Ecosystems and Mainnet Economic Models

Recently, I’ve seen many still holding onto ETH positions. I want to calmly analyze the real issues facing this ecosystem from several technical and economic perspectives.

**First Issue: The Flow Siphoning Effect of Layer2**

Currently, the L2 ecosystem is growing rapidly, but at what cost? The transaction volume and fee income of the mainnet are being diverted by L2 solutions, which was originally the core of ETH’s economic model. The inflation pressure on the mainnet has not been truly addressed—burn mechanisms continue to weaken, while issuance persists. In other words, the scarcity of tokens is being diluted, and the economic foundation supporting value is loosening.

**Second Issue: The Direction of Institutional Funds**

With the opening of ETF channels, many traditional funds have entered. But if we look at the broader trend toward 2026, capital is shifting toward more efficient, lower-latency public chains. This is not conspiracy theory but a natural result of market competition. Once large-scale funds start to exit, the risk of chain reactions and liquidations will become significant.

**Third Issue: Wear and Tear of the Consensus Foundation**

The early narrative of Ethereum was about decentralization and open finance. Now, the focus has shifted to how to unwind positions and escape peaks. When validators’ yields can no longer cover operational costs, and core supporters start calculating the return on investment, the resilience of this ecosystem will face a real test.

**Key Points Market Participants Need to Consider:**

Pure faith is worthless in a market downturn. A more pragmatic approach is to regularly evaluate positions, cut losses in time, and protect principal. In the crypto market, survival is the priority.