2026-01-15 01:23:15

Recently, investment bank analysts adjusted their outlook on treasury-related Bitcoin companies. They downgraded the one-year target price of a leading Bitcoin asset management firm from $500 to $440. What is the main reason? Equity financing.

Specifically, this company plans to increase its holdings by approximately 155,000 Bitcoins in fiscal year 2026. It sounds like a lot, but this expansion mainly relies on issuing shares to raise funds. As a result, the Bitcoin yield is diluted, dropping from previous expectations to 7.1%.

Looking back at recent events: during the Bitcoin price adjustment period, this company raised about $1.25 billion through stock financing and purchased 13,627 Bitcoins. The numbers look impressive, but analysts believe that the investment return generated by this financing method is actually quite limited.

However, analysts also provided an optimistic outlook. They believe that by fiscal year 2027, the Bitcoin yield will rebound to 8.1%. Price predictions are: by the end of 2026, Bitcoin may be around $177,000, and by the end of 2027, it could rise to $226,000. Whether this move can turn the tide depends on Bitcoin's subsequent performance.

BTC-1,29%

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SelfCustodyBro

· 01-17 17:39

Dilution is still dilution. No matter how optimistic the expectations are, they can't change the fact that the current ROE has been lowered. We have to wait for the coin price to rise before making a comeback.

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DefiOldTrickster

· 01-15 01:50

Oh no, it's the same old dilution play again. Issuing stocks to buy Bitcoin, and the return rate is directly halved from expectations. Truly remarkable. Wait, a 7.1% annualized return? Brother, is this even considered an investment return? My naked short position in 2017 had a more outrageous return. To put it simply, it's a matter of timing. When prices are low, you still need financing; financing leads to dilution. My arbitrage strategy back then was doomed because of this. Don't be fooled by the pretty numbers. Now, the gamble is whether it can hold until 2027 and reach $226,000, otherwise this round of financing will just make the new investors the bagholders. If the price doesn't move, real money is just paper wealth. I can't predict where it will be by the end of 2026. These kinds of companies are basically betting on Bitcoin continuing to rise. If it stagnates or falls, the diluted equity will never be recovered. Relying on an 8.1% annual return to turn things around? Isn't playing long and short positions with a combined strategy more exciting?

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SnapshotStriker

· 01-15 01:47

Stock financing dilutes returns; this move is a bit weak. Just hoping that BTC's rise later can save the day.

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MergeConflict

· 01-15 01:46

Dilution is over, I'm tired of the trick of issuing stocks to buy coins. It's better to just borrow money and hold hard.

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OneBlockAtATime

· 01-15 01:45

Dilution, dilution, dilution. The key still depends on whether the coin price goes up or not; otherwise, it's all in vain.

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GateUser-afe07a92

· 01-15 01:41

The stock dilution trick is really a classic move for companies... The return rate drops directly from expectations to 7.1%, and you're just hoping it can bounce back later?

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