Bitcoin recently broke through $97,000, prompting many to wonder: can it seize the psychological barrier of $100,000? Is this rebound a genuine upward trend, or just another roller coaster ride?

**Macro and Policy Double Drivers**

First, let’s look at the broader environment. The latest US CPI data shows a 2.7% year-over-year increase in December, in line with expectations. What does this mean? Core inflation is cooling down, and the market is beginning to strongly anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Once rate cuts are implemented, holding cash becomes a hot potato—no returns. So everyone is desperately seeking high-yield assets, and risk assets like Bitcoin naturally come into focus.

Additionally, regulatory risks are diminishing. Previously, those "black swan" risks were receding, and the CLARITY Act text is gradually being implemented, making the regulatory framework clearer. This is crucial for institutional funds—having rules to follow provides confidence, encouraging large-scale investments. This is the biggest difference compared to previous cycles.

**Who is buying? How are they buying?**

Flow of funds tells all. The current situation is quite typical: institutions are steadily building positions, retail investors are chasing the rally.

The ETF channel is particularly prominent. Data shows massive and continuous net inflows, with institutions buying spot assets through this route, locking in their chips. The circulating supply of available chips in the market actually decreases.

On the retail side? When prices break through key resistance levels, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is ignited. Although retail investors tend to buy late, their liquidity does help push the market higher.

**Technical outlook?**

From a chip and technical perspective, the bulls currently hold the upper hand. Bitcoin has effectively broken above the 200-day moving average, a long-term resistance level, and short-term moving averages are also diverging upward, confirming a short-term uptrend technically. Of course, there are resistance zones above, but the current posture is bullish.

Can it hold steady at $100,000? That depends on whether a few key points can stay stable—policy expectations don’t reverse, institutional buying continues, and retail enthusiasm doesn’t overheat. If these conditions are maintained, reaching $100,000 is possible. But any one of these factors faltering could lead to a correction.