The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policies has yet to be announced, leaving the market full of suspense. Once this decision is made, it will directly alter the future direction of U.S. trade policy and will also become a key driver influencing gold prices.

Let's consider the worst-case scenario: if the court rules against Trump, the U.S. will face over $130 billion in tariff refund pressures. When calculated, this will further worsen the fiscal deficit, and the attractiveness of dollar assets will inevitably decline. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets like gold, and the logic for gold prices to rise will be established.

Conversely, if the court sides with Trump and the tariff policies are validated, the U.S. trade balance is expected to improve, providing support for the dollar, and the pressure on gold will diminish accordingly.

Interestingly, last night, a series of negative U.S. economic data were released, and investors should have sold off assets, but gold did not do so. Instead, after falling to $4599, it quickly rebounded at the critical support level of $4600, climbing back to around $4630. This "dip then rebound" pattern indicates that the bears do not hold the dominant position, and the short-term negative data seem more like a shakeout.

Currently, gold is still oscillating within a range. From a technical perspective, one could consider going long in the $4620-$4610 range. If it can break through the resistance at $4630-$4640, the next target would be the high points between $4650 and $4670.

【Disclaimer】This analysis reflects personal opinions only and is not investment advice. The market carries risks; please trade cautiously.