When altcoins experience continuous surges, we need to see through the true positions of the market makers. Usually, when the price moves upward, the open interest and the nominal value in the contracts should grow in sync—that indicates ongoing capital inflow.

But there is an exception to this rule, and once it appears, you should be cautious.

The price is still rising, and the nominal value of the contracts is increasing, but the open interest starts to lag behind. When these two lines suddenly diverge, that’s a signal.

Why does this happen? It indicates that the market makers are doing one thing: continuing to push the price up (supporting the price), while secretly closing long positions and then switching to build short positions. They manipulate the market to suppress open interest, while artificially maintaining the price, resulting in this strange phenomenon—price and nominal value rise, but participation diminishes.

This separation between "nominal value" and "open interest" often occurs at the end of a sharp rally, near the top. It’s like a countdown to a short squeeze.

Remember this detail: the more volatile the price, the more the contract open interest appears subdued, the more it indicates that the market makers have quietly taken the opposite side of your position. At this point, it’s time to consider risk management.