#Strategy加仓BTC Strong economic data disrupts the market, gold faces resistance in rebound

In mid-January, the retail sales data and price index released by the US truly caught the market off guard. Retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and core retail also rose by 0.5%—both exceeding expectations. The PPI year-on-year soared to 3.0%, well above the market forecast of 2.7%.

This set of data is not good news for gold prices. Strong consumer data indicates that domestic demand in the US remains solid, which directly weakens the Federal Reserve's urgency to cut interest rates. Coupled with concerns over sticky inflation, market enthusiasm for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 has noticeably cooled. In the short term, the US economy remains resilient, and Q4 GDP may even be revised upward due to a rebound in consumption, putting natural pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold stabilized after rebounding overnight from the 4573 support level, reaching a high of 4639—basically stuck near the upper boundary of the channel. However, the 4640 level has repeatedly faced resistance, and breaking through it is unlikely.

The ideal scenario should be: first, a downward correction to consolidate, then, once support at the lower boundary of the channel around 4580-4570 is confirmed, consider initiating a new upward move. If it forcibly breaks through 4640, although there is room for further upside, the possibility of a pullback should not be underestimated. To truly break through the daily chart level, more oscillation at high levels may be necessary.

The trading strategy is: consider going long around 4610-4600, targeting 4640-4672; focus on defending the key support at 4570 below, and if broken, follow up with short positions. If the resistance at 4640 is broken and stabilized, you can continue to chase higher towards 4700. For mid-range levels, it’s better to be cautious and focus on protecting both ends, mainly following the overall upward trend.

Risk management is always the top priority in any trading. Stop-loss is not about admitting defeat, but about preserving strength and improving capital efficiency, keeping small losses outside of risk. Gambling on luck often results in greater costs in the end.

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