𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀, 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆. Across prediction markets, wallets are loading US--Iran strike scenarios in short windows (Jan 14--16). $3--5k per date. High convexity (6--7x). At the same time, broader time-window

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