The U.S. Supreme Court may announce its ruling on the Trump tariffs case today. Once the decision is announced, it is expected to trigger a chain reaction of market adjustments.

Trump previously openly acknowledged the risks he faced: if the tariffs policy is overturned by the court, the U.S. government could face "hundreds of billions of dollars in refunds." This potential compensation, along with the resulting budget shortfall, puts significant pressure on federal finances.

According to Polymarket prediction data, the probability of the Trump tariffs case receiving legal support is only 29%. This relatively low figure suggests that the market is not optimistic about the final outcome of the case.

What will happen if the ruling is unfavorable to the policy? Market participants will inevitably reprice. Deteriorating fiscal conditions often trigger sharp shifts in capital allocation—risk assets such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies may all face capital outflows. This revaluation process is often accompanied by increased volatility.