The U.S. Department of Commerce just released retail sales data for November, and quarterly earnings reports from the four major banks are also coming out one after another. From these data, the strength of the U.S. consumer market is somewhat surprising.

Let's start with the numbers. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the strongest single-month performance since July. Although these are nominal figures without adjusting for inflation, a rough comparison with the CPI suggests that actual consumption is indeed growing. Categories such as sporting goods, automobiles, home improvement supplies, and gasoline all showed increases, indicating that consumers are not just buying cheap goods but are genuinely upgrading their consumption. Black Friday and Thanksgiving sales boosted the numbers temporarily, but the year-over-year growth still reflects real consumer resilience.

Looking at bank data, the retail client credit card default rates for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo are all declining, generally staying below 4%. These banks' high-net-worth client groups are in good financial shape, with strong credit qualifications.

However, there is a hidden risk—most American consumers do not use the services of the big banks and mainly rely on small and medium-sized banks. Therefore, looking only at the big banks' data can be somewhat one-sided. The consumer credit report published by the New York Fed provides a fuller picture. The latest data for Q3 2025 shows that the overall U.S. credit card default rate (overdue by more than 90 days) has reached 12%.

In other words, the risks within the financial system are clearly diverging across different social strata. Beneath the seemingly prosperous consumer data, some groups are experiencing increasing debt pressures. This will impact market expectations and policy directions and warrants ongoing observation.