Tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies will be implemented, which is very likely to become the biggest uncertainty event facing the crypto market in the near term. Many investors simply believe that "a ruling of non-compliance = bullish signal," but this judgment overlooks the chain reactions that could be triggered subsequently.

According to market expectations, the probability of a ruling favoring non-compliance is about 76%. On the surface, this seems beneficial for risk assets, but the real danger lies in the serious underestimation of the combined effects of three aspects.

**First is the spread of retaliatory shocks.** If the ruling is unfavorable, relevant parties will take countermeasures worth hundreds of billions. The correlation between the crypto market and the U.S. stock market has now reached 0.74, meaning any sharp fluctuations in traditional financial markets will directly transmit to the crypto space. When various risk assets shrink simultaneously, involving trillions of dollars, panic withdrawals become inevitable, causing severe shocks to market liquidity.

**Second is the tightening of fiscal liquidity.** If the tariff policy is overturned, the government will face a huge funding gap. To fill this gap, emergency debt financing and related fund disputes will follow. Under this scenario, various assets in the market may be forced to liquidate to cope with liquidity pressure, further intensifying selling pressure.

The risk is not in the direction of the ruling itself, but in the series of market reactions it may trigger. At this point, maintaining caution and preparing risk management in advance are especially important.