The latest economic indicators paint a nuanced picture for growth prospects. Core retail sales came in as anticipated, suggesting steady consumer spending, while existing home sales surprised to the upside—indicating resilience in the housing market despite elevated rates. However, the narrative shifts when examining inflation dynamics: November's core PPI fell below consensus expectations, yet PCE-relevant components held above forecasts, keeping price pressures on the radar. Factoring in these mixed signals, GDP tracking for Q4 has been revised downward to +2.1%, reflecting a more cautious growth trajectory. This confluence of moderating inflation paired with slower economic expansion typically catches markets' attention, as it reshapes expectations around monetary policy and asset valuations heading into year-end.
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The latest economic indicators paint a nuanced picture for growth prospects. Core retail sales came in as anticipated, suggesting steady consumer spending, while existing home sales surprised to the upside—indicating resilience in the housing market despite elevated rates. However, the narrative shifts when examining inflation dynamics: November's core PPI fell below consensus expectations, yet PCE-relevant components held above forecasts, keeping price pressures on the radar. Factoring in these mixed signals, GDP tracking for Q4 has been revised downward to +2.1%, reflecting a more cautious growth trajectory. This confluence of moderating inflation paired with slower economic expansion typically catches markets' attention, as it reshapes expectations around monetary policy and asset valuations heading into year-end.