2026-01-14 17:43:34

Has the traditional 4-year crypto cycle lost its grip on Bitcoin?

The narrative around halving events—once the heartbeat of market cycles—is fading. What's replacing it? A shift toward macroeconomic forces that dwarf block reward dynamics.

Today's Bitcoin story isn't written by miners or technical supply schedules. It's shaped by institutional capital flows, geopolitical tensions, and policy signals from Washington. A single tweet can move markets more than a halving now.

This signals a maturing market where Bitcoin increasingly dances to the same rhythm as traditional finance. The old playbook of pure on-chain metrics? That era is ending. Welcome to an age where your macro thesis matters more than your mining calculator.

BTC-2,77%

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PoetryOnChain

· 01-17 16:25

Laughing to death, I saw it a long time ago. The crypto circle is still stuck on the halving cycle, not realizing that a single word from Washington is more effective than your mining rig's hash rate. Wake up, everyone.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 01-17 11:33

The macro aspect has overshadowed the supply side, indicating that BTC is truly becoming institutionalized. This is something I predicted a long time ago. Looking at historical data, there's no way to beat it; we have to go along with the Federal Reserve.

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LayoffMiner

· 01-15 19:19

I've long seen through it; the halving narrative is outdated. Now, it's all about macro policies and liquidity. Bitcoin is now just a toy for big capital.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 01-14 18:12

To be honest, Bitcoin is now tied to traditional finance. Talking about halving cycles is pointless. The real issue is reading the Fed's mood to decide what to do.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 01-14 18:10

To be honest, I still believe in the halving cycle. When those Wall Street institutions come in, they just change the rules, but on-chain data can't be fooled.

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ForeverBuyingDips

· 01-14 18:06

It should have been like this a long time ago. Macro narratives suppress the supply side, and Wall Street's money is way more than miners'

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SchrodingerGas

· 01-14 18:00

I've been saying it for a long time, the halving narrative should have collapsed long ago. Over the past few years, on-chain data has become increasingly meaningless, and a single buy or sell order from institutions can break through your technical analysis... It's really ironic.

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ser_ngmi

· 01-14 17:52

Wait, does this mean that Bitcoin is now similar to the stock market? Then why bother with on-chain analysis? Just look at the Federal Reserve's statements.

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