Here's what's moving the macro picture right now: Federal Reserve policymakers remain uncertain about the precise break-even rate for sustainable job market equilibrium—that sweet spot where employment stabilizes without fueling price pressures. The math gets trickier when government data streams were disrupted by the recent shutdown, meaning we're looking at a few more months before economic statistics normalize and give us clearer signals.

Meanwhile, the labor market appears stuck in neutral. Employment gains have stalled while inflation continues its gradual descent—a dynamic that shapes everything from bond yields to crypto positioning. This sideways momentum in hiring combined with easing price growth creates an unusual environment where traditional rate-path expectations don't quite fit. Market participants watching Fed communications need to track not just inflation numbers, but also when official employment data regains its historical reliability after the data gap.