Prediction markets on-chain are pricing some wild odds lately. Polymarket currently has a 71% probability on a specific geopolitical event happening before month's end—quite a jump from earlier levels. The spike seems tied to recent policy signals and regional intelligence developments. Curious what the community makes of these market readings. Are traders pricing in real risk or just chasing momentum? How do you assess this kind of on-chain prediction data?
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CodeZeroBasis
· 01-17 17:40
The figure of 71% seems a bit outrageous, and it feels like panic selling is pushing the probability higher.
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MercilessHalal
· 01-16 21:33
Does the 71% figure feel like it's been hyped up? Is it really genuine or just panic selling?
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ZenMiner
· 01-16 10:33
71% this probability feels a bit fake, it's all just big players dumping and pumping tactics.
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potentially_notable
· 01-14 18:11
71% This number has shot up directly, but it feels a bit fake.
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OffchainWinner
· 01-14 18:10
The number 71% feels a bit虚啊...
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FloorSweeper
· 01-14 18:06
lmao 71% is literally just paper hands capitulating to headlines. real traders already knew this was cooking—weak signals always spike right before the actual reversal. polymarket's just a sentiment gauge for retail, not alpha.
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DiamondHands
· 01-14 17:57
71% This number is rising a bit rapidly. Is it really fundamentals or just pure speculation...
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WhaleStalker
· 01-14 17:51
71%? Laughing out loud, this is just a gambler's mentality.
Prediction markets on-chain are pricing some wild odds lately. Polymarket currently has a 71% probability on a specific geopolitical event happening before month's end—quite a jump from earlier levels. The spike seems tied to recent policy signals and regional intelligence developments. Curious what the community makes of these market readings. Are traders pricing in real risk or just chasing momentum? How do you assess this kind of on-chain prediction data?