Bitcoin Price Prediction: $603M Short Squeeze Powers Push Toward $96K Resistance

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin Price Prediction: $603M Short Squeeze Powers Push Toward $96K Resistance Original Link: Bitcoin price today surges to $95,385 following lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data that reignited demand for scarce assets and triggered a massive short squeeze across crypto derivatives markets. The 4 percent rally pushed BTC above $95,000 for the first time in a week, but $100.16 million in spot outflows signal sellers are using strength to exit positions.

Inflation Surprise Triggers $603M Short Liquidation

U.S. inflation data surprised to the downside, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates in 2026. Lower inflation eased pressure on bond yields and improved liquidity conditions, a setup that has historically favored crypto and risk assets.

The move came with significant unwinding in futures markets. Over $688 million in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with short sellers accounting for roughly $603 million of the total. Nearly 122,000 traders were wiped out as prices accelerated higher, led by a $12.9 million ETHUSDT liquidation on a leading exchange.

The liquidation skew highlights how aggressively traders had positioned for downside heading into the inflation print and how quickly that narrative unraveled. Ether outperformed Bitcoin, climbing over 7 percent to around $3,330, while major tokens including Solana, Cardano, and XRP moved as much as 9 percent higher.

Political tension added fuel. Reports that the U.S. Justice Department served grand jury subpoenas on the Federal Reserve earlier this week unsettled markets and weakened the dollar, boosting the appeal of assets viewed as insulated from central bank risk.

$100M Outflows Show Distribution Despite Rally

Exchange flow data reveals $100.16 million in net outflows on January 14, marking significant distribution as Bitcoin tested the $95,000-$96,000 resistance zone. When large outflows occur during rallies rather than corrections, it typically signals holders are moving tokens to exchanges to sell rather than withdrawing to cold storage.

The outflows contrast sharply with the bullish price action, creating a divergence that suggests participants are using the inflation-driven rally to exit positions rather than chase momentum. Traditional risk-on indicators supported the move, with Asian equities climbing to record highs, silver breaking above $90 an ounce for the first time, and gold hovering near all-time highs.

These moves suggest investors are looking for exposure to assets that benefit from looser financial conditions and currency instability. However, the spot outflows show Bitcoin holders remain cautious despite the macro setup improving.

Triangle Apex Tests 100-Day EMA Resistance

The daily chart shows Bitcoin testing the apex of a symmetrical triangle that has compressed volatility since early January. Price is challenging the 100-day EMA at $95,955, a level that has capped rallies and marked resistance throughout the consolidation.

Key technical levels show:

• 20-day EMA: $91,167
• 50-day EMA: $91,803
• 100-day EMA: $95,955
• 200-day EMA: $99,569
• Supertrend: $88,032

BTC trades above the 20 and 50-day EMAs but faces immediate resistance at the 100-day. A clean break above $96,000 with volume would flip this level to support and open a path toward the 200-day EMA at $99,569. Losing $94,500 would invalidate the breakout and expose the triangle lower boundary near $91,000.

The rising trendline that has supported price since December lows sits just below current levels near $93,000-$94,000. This trendline has acted as a buying zone throughout the consolidation, and the current test of triangle resistance while holding trendline support creates a coiled setup.

Short Term Consolidation At Parabolic SAR

The 30-minute timeframe shows Bitcoin consolidating just below the Parabolic SAR at $95,314 after the initial surge above $95,000. The RSI reads 51.85, neutral after cooling from overbought conditions during the rally.

Price is testing the resistance created by both the SAR and the 100-day EMA convergence. A close above $96,000 would flip both indicators bullish and confirm the triangle breakout. Failure to hold $95,000 would signal the inflation rally has exhausted and profit-taking is overwhelming new demand.

The triangle apex is approaching, typically forcing a resolution within days. The combination of improving macro conditions, short squeeze momentum, and technical compression creates potential for explosive moves in either direction.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The inflation data and short squeeze create bullish catalysts, but the $100 million in outflows temper conviction. If BTC breaks above $96,000 with volume and reclaims the 100-day EMA, the triangle resolves bullish. That would target $99,569 at the 200-day EMA initially, with further upside toward $102,000 if momentum builds.

If price loses $94,500 and breaks the rising trendline, the rally becomes a liquidity grab for exits. That exposes the 50-day EMA at $91,803, with deeper correction toward $88,000 and Supertrend support if selling accelerates.

Breaking $96,000 confirms the breakout. Losing $94,500 invalidates the move.

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