The US November PPI year-over-year was announced today, with the actual figure precisely hitting the expected 2.7%, with no deviation at all. This report is indeed a bit late (delayed by the government shutdown), but for the market, what everyone is waiting for is this "stability" word.

As a leading indicator of inflation, the upstream prices have not continued to fluctuate wildly, essentially sending a signal to traders: supply chain pressures have not further worsened, and the Federal Reserve does not need to be forced to accelerate the pace of rate cuts for now. It may seem insignificant at first glance, but its impact on crypto assets is actually quite direct.

Suppose the data comes in higher than expected, hawkish rhetoric will be amplified immediately, and market expectations for interest rates will rise accordingly. At that time, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will face a 2-4% correction pressure. Funds will instinctively flee to safe assets, and both the stock market and crypto market could be double-hit. After all, no one dares to go all-in on high-beta assets during a period of rising inflation.

The reverse scenario is also quite common: if the actual figure is below expectations, even just dropping to 2.5%, the entire market will interpret it as "inflation is fully under control, and the rate cut cycle will accelerate soon." In this case, funds will rush into risk markets, and a short-term 2-4% or even larger surge in the crypto sector is very normal. The combination of low interest rates and loose liquidity makes Bitcoin, as "digital gold," feel like a pie falling from the sky.

Currently, the main theme in the market still revolves around policy game-playing and expectations of a soft macro landing. Friends who are active in the crypto market should stay alert and keep an eye on the movements of such macroeconomic data.