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Ladies and gentlemen, I am reviewing Bitcoin's real-time trend again according to the established analysis rhythm.
Since this afternoon, BTC/USDT has been fluctuating slightly around the 95,000 level, with no significant movement. But this is not a bad thing — the daily and 4-hour bullish structures remain intact, and the trend has not been broken. My judgment still leans bullish.
**Technical Analysis**
The daily ADX has reached 53.1, indicating a strong trend. The bulls are in control, with the +DI at 31.4 far exceeding the -DI at 9.6. The on-chain indicators OBV and CMF(0.118) continue to show capital inflow, and the MFI at 71 indicates a bullish reading overall. Looking at the 4-hour cycle, ADX is also strong at 49.5, with OBV deviation reaching a high of +51.3%, and CMF showing a robust inflow of 0.264, indicating healthy capital flow. Although the 1-hour MACD has shown a death cross, ADX remains strong at 52.2, and the inflow trend of OBV and CMF has not reversed, which is a normal correction during an uptrend. The multi-timeframe consistency score is 80%, confirming the trend direction.
**Liquidity Analysis to Watch**
From the overall network data, sell orders currently dominate at 63.2%, with buy orders only at 36.8%. This pressure is mainly concentrated on major exchanges, with sell orders accounting for 67% on one top exchange, 91% on another mainstream platform, and 71% on a third platform. In contrast, a compliant platform shows relatively balanced buy and sell forces. This indicates that the selling pressure above 95,000 is real and not distorted by any single exchange's data. To push higher in the short term, stronger buy support is needed.
**Position and Sentiment**
The current price is near the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, with RSI soaring to 75.3, indicating an overbought condition — a key risk point. However, funding rates are normal, with no extreme sentiment signals. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 48/100, in the neutral zone, suggesting overall market sentiment remains stable. Large order flow shows a clear selling trend, consistent with cross-exchange data, indicating some profit-taking but not panic selling yet.
**My Strategy Advice**
I remain bullish on the direction, but considering the real selling pressure above and the current overbought state, I do not recommend chasing the high. The ideal entry point for long positions should be near key support levels. You might consider building positions gradually if the price retraces to the 4-hour MA20( around 92,360) or the daily MA50( around 89,925). If the price strongly breaks above the previous high of 95,300 and stabilizes, a light position can be added, but stop-losses must be tight.
Currently, the technical position is at a relatively high level across multiple timeframes, with an overall score of 80%. The first support is at 92,672, with strong supports at 92,360 and 91,706; resistance levels are at 97,034, then the previous high zone. Falling below 92,672 could lead to a direct drop toward 92,360 or even 91,706. Despite concentrated sell orders, the bullish structure on the daily and 4-hour charts combined with ongoing capital inflow still presents an upward breakout opportunity. The current position is neither the worst nor the best; patience for a retracement or a strong breakout signal is most important.
Markets often accumulate energy through narrow-range oscillations within clear trends. The key is to be prepared at critical levels and not lose composure during consolidation.
**Core Parameter Summary**
Direction: Long
Stop Loss: 91,700 USDT
Support Levels: 92,672 / 92,360 / 91,706 USDT
Resistance Levels: 95,300 / 97,034 / 98,946 USDT
Target: 98,946 USDT
⚠️ The current trend strength is moderate; closely monitor price movements, and consider taking profits early if encountering resistance.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is for technical analysis reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please operate cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.