US December CPI YoY growth of 2.7%, basically in line with market expectations. The data appears lukewarm—inflation hasn't spiraled out of control, but the downward momentum isn't that fierce either. The market's general interpretation is that a soft landing + mild rate cuts can still be achieved, just with limited reinforcement. According to FedWatch data, the January FOMC is highly likely to hold steady, with two rate cuts expected within the year, the first window around June.

Interestingly, the bigger disruptor comes from the political level. The Department of Justice's criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair, combined with the White House's public pressure, has triggered a rare joint support from central banks worldwide. Over a dozen countries' central banks have issued joint statements, directly characterizing the issue as "central bank independence is the cornerstone of price, financial, and economic stability." The wording is unprecedentedly strong.

Market reaction has been straightforward: concerns over compromised independence → rising inflation expectations → long-term interest rates increase. In essence, this move has instead weakened the possibility of rate cuts, producing a counterproductive effect.

JPMorgan's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with solid EPS and trading business performance. However, approximately $2.2 billion impact related to Apple Card, weak investment banking revenue, along with regulatory uncertainties and management's negative stance on rate control proposals, led to a muted overall market response. The CFO explicitly stated during the earnings call that a 10% interest rate cap would severely harm consumers and the economy, hinting that pushing it forward could face legal opposition. The stock price subsequently underperformed significantly.