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The biggest market highlight in the past couple of days may not be the rumors of interest rate cuts, but rather an internal power struggle within the Federal Reserve.
Powell has hired top Wall Street legal teams, and this move itself indicates a problem— they are about to fight a tough battle for the independence of the central bank. Before the Sunday statement, the legal team had already started planning months in advance. This is not a last-minute effort but a preemptive move to apply political pressure on Washington. What is the core message? It’s simple: The Federal Reserve is the printing press, but the keys to the printing press should not be handed over to politicians.
From this, three key signals can be read. First, political interference in monetary easing is basically out of the question. The Fed will only listen to economic data and will not act recklessly due to political pressure. Second, the era of high interest rates must continue. Don’t expect rapid rate cuts; markets should prepare for a long-term balance sheet reduction and slow rate decreases. Lastly, CPI data will become a market barometer that must be closely watched.
For crypto assets, this situation has both pros and cons. In the long run, it’s positive. The more independent the Fed, the less monetary policy is subject to political influence, making the story of Bitcoin as a “non-political asset” more credible. But in the short term, calmness is required. Liquidity is still expected to tighten, and risk assets may be suppressed for now. However, the lows created by market panic are often the best opportunities for strategic positioning.
Next, the congressional hearings will be the real test. Whether the central bank can maintain its independence depends on that battle. Interestingly, the more independent the central bank, the more it may either reassure the market or cause more volatility—this is a question worth pondering.