Analysts have recently released a relatively optimistic forecast: the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in March, with another cut before mid-year, and the final rate level could drop to around 3%. This view is quite rare at the moment, as more market voices believe that rate cuts will be delayed until the second half of the year or even later.

What is the logic behind this forecast? There are two core assumptions: inflation can be gradually controlled, and the economy can avoid a deep recession to achieve a "soft landing." If economic data suddenly weakens, the pace of rate cuts could be much faster than this.

For those of us trading in the crypto market, what does this mean? The decline in interest rates will push bond prices higher—nothing new there—but the key impact is on growth stocks and tech stocks—lower discount rates directly boost valuations. Meanwhile, the pressure on the US dollar will also increase accordingly. In simple terms, once easing expectations become consensus, there will be spillover effects.

It’s important to note that this is just one opinion. The actual Federal Reserve decisions will still depend on the upcoming data over the next few months—each CPI report, PCE index, and non-farm employment figure is crucial. These data points will either confirm the picture of gradually easing inflation or completely overturn this forecast. So, it’s wise to consider this view as a reference framework, but the specifics still depend on the data.