There is a big news story causing a stir in the financial world. Renowned hedge fund manager Bill Ackman recently made a statement that the Federal Reserve might be changing its stance — the 2% inflation target, which has been maintained for over a decade, could be raised to 2.5% or even 3%. He also bluntly said that those in the market still dreaming of a return to 2% inflation are simply delusional. Once this was announced, traders worldwide began re-evaluating their positions, and major investment banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs started adjusting their expectations for rate cuts. The policy direction is indeed shifting.

Why is it so hard to stick to this 2% target? It sounds simple, but the underlying logic is actually quite hardcore.

First, let's talk about the labor market. Hiring has been really difficult these past two years, especially in the service sector, where it can take ages to find the right candidate for an open position. Wages are rising, and this pressure has become a fundamental driver of inflation, making it hard to improve in the short term. Next are housing and transportation costs — together, these contribute nearly 1 percentage point to inflation pressure. Housing prices won't just fall because the central bank says so, and transportation costs have their own rhythm. Data lag effects make these impacts more persistent. Plus, with globalization reversing, supply chain restructuring and geopolitical uncertainties have made the inflation environment much more complex than it was ten years ago.

What does this change mean for the market? Simply put, if the Fed really compromises and accepts a higher inflation level, then previous investment decisions based on the 2% target will need to be re-evaluated. Real returns on dollar assets, stock market valuation logic, commodity pricing — a series of dominoes could be pushed over. For the crypto market, this macro environment shift is also worth paying attention to.