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The US December CPI was seemingly calm after its release (year-over-year 2.7%, fully in line with expectations), but the voices of economists are quite different. Many analysts believe that the seemingly impressive numbers are due to the fading of statistical distortions caused by the government shutdown in November. In other words, the inflation data has undergone a "visual correction."
What’s more concerning is that the real inflation situation may not be as optimistic as it appears. It has quietly entered the most stubborn state—slow but persistent, stuck in a mild range, unable to fall below the official target of 2%.
Looking at the market’s actual reaction makes this clear. Gold initially came under pressure due to the missed rate cut expectations, but then reconsidered—if the data has been artificially adjusted, the value of hard currency becomes even more prominent. It then turned upward, firmly holding the historic high of $4600. Continuous central bank purchases and policy hedging demand have provided the strongest support for gold.
The performance of US stocks appears more flexible. After a brief panic, investors quickly shifted their focus to earnings season. The story of tech stocks backed by the AI industry chain remains popular, and the expectation of "mild inflation" has instead opened up new narrative space for cyclical sectors.
The US dollar experienced a slight rebound, mainly supported by interest rate differentials. But don’t forget, the risk of intervention by the Trump administration in Federal Reserve policies is like a landmine buried underground, posing a hidden threat to the dollar’s long-term credibility.
This "data fog" reveals two harsh realities: first, US inflation is more sticky than expected; second, the market is beginning to doubt the credibility of official data. How much economic truth has been hidden by the adjustments after the government shutdown?
In this period where traditional rules are challenged and data reliability is questioned, many funds are starting to seek new narratives and unconventional assets. Besides the much-watched gold, some attention has also turned to the crypto market. Assets like 1000SATS, ORDI, and related tokens have once again become focal points for capital exploration, although volatility remains their eternal label.
So the question boils down to this: do you continue to rely on potentially "modified" data to play the traditional market game? Or do you prepare early for the risks of "data distortion" and "system cracks," and position yourself in some unconventional options?
(The market moves forward amid doubt. This article is for informational analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.)