The Federal Reserve remains on hold in the short term, but don't expect the rate cut window to be closed for long. Brian Martin, Head of G3 Economic Research at ANZ Bank, latest insights dispel this misconception — the Fed is highly likely to keep rates steady in January, but this is just a transitional period, and the pace of rate cuts won't pause for too long.

His forecast is as follows: the federal funds target rate will be cut by 25 basis points in March, with another similar adjustment in June. If this pace continues, by mid-year, the target rate could fall to the 3.00%-3.25% range.

The logic supporting this judgment is also solid. First, the inflationary impact of tariffs last year is waning; second, wage growth is slowing; third, housing inflation is cooling. Combining these factors, US inflation pressures are expected to gradually ease by 2026, creating space for the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts.