US December CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with core CPI excluding energy and food up only 0.2%, showing a divergence. Bitcoin did not fluctuate significantly after the data release, remaining stable around $92,000, with market participants behaving quite calmly.

This moderate core inflation data reinforces the Fed's expectation to hold steady for now. According to market pricing reflected in CME interest rate futures contracts, the probability of maintaining the current rate in January is close to 80%.

From a quantitative perspective, what does this mean? The stable performance after excluding energy and food actually reduces the tail risk of "long-term high levels." In the short term, the implied volatility index (DVOL) for rate fluctuations remains relatively low, lowering the cost of holding convex positions in risk assets like Bitcoin.

The market's focus has quietly shifted—from purely policy expectations to assessments of actual yields and overall positioning structure. Systematic funds still lack clear macro signals to drive directional trades, but active traders continue to view BTC as a hedge against interest rate volatility.