1.14 Bitcoin Auntie's Afternoon Thoughts

Bitcoin has experienced a violent surge on the daily chart, with the price once reaching around 96,800. However, the rally was short-lived, and it was immediately pushed down, currently pulling back to around 94,800 with repeated oscillations. The previous trading day saw a long upper shadow, which is not a shakeout but a clear display of selling pressure at high levels. The upward capital outflow is very obvious.

Switching to the 4-hour cycle, the structure is even more straightforward—rising, pulling back, then rebounding with diminishing strength. The highs cannot be effectively lifted, a typical pattern of strong rally followed by correction. The MACD histogram continues to shorten, with DIF and DEA rapidly converging. The bullish momentum is clearly waning, indicating that the move is not to continue charging but to prepare for a pullback.

Although the daily chart remains in a bullish structure, the pace has clearly slowed down. EMA7 is still supporting the price from below, providing short-term support; however, EMA30 and EMA120, while still in a bullish arrangement, have already diverged significantly from the price, with a large divergence. Continuing to chase longs at this position carries much higher risk than reward.

In summary: the trend is not dead, but the sentiment is overheated; the structure is not broken, but a correction is highly probable. This is not the time to blindly be bullish. The bullish side should be calm; patient funds should wait for a pullback.

Personal Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short at 95200-95800, targets below at 94000, 93500; if broken downward, watch 92000
Auntie: Short at 3350-3380, targets below at 3300, 3250; if broken downward, watch 3170!