2026-01-14 07:02:03

#数字资产市场动态 Will the Federal Reserve really hold steady until the end of the year? The Chief Economist of ANZ Bank recently poured cold water on that idea. He said the Fed might keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, but the notion that this rate hike cycle will be paused for a long time doesn't hold water. So what is the reality? A 25 basis point cut in March and June, bringing the target rate down to 3.00%-3.25% by mid-year—this is the most likely scenario. The logic behind this is quite clear: the inflation spike caused by previous tariff speculation will dissipate, wage growth will start to cool, and housing inflation is also retreating. Once these factors all take effect, US inflation will gradually enter a downward trend by 2026. In other words, now is definitely not the time to stubbornly hold onto interest rates.

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Deconstructionist

· 01-17 00:08

It's the same old story. The Federal Reserve will definitely have to cut rates again this year, but the question is whether they will do it as quickly as they say.

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OneBlockAtATime

· 01-16 21:16

Predicting the Federal Reserve again? I heard this rhetoric last year. How credible can it be now?

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OnChainDetective

· 01-16 14:42

Wait a minute... 25bp in March and June respectively, how come these numbers are so neat? I checked the transfer records of large on-chain holders, and the institutional addresses have been frequently active these days. It feels like someone is betting early again. The argument from that Aussie guy seems reasonable but overlooks a detail—the hidden pressure in the US bond market. Tariff cooling, wage slowdown, real estate decline... those are later issues. The question is, who is behind the scenes manipulating these expectations now?

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FalseProfitProphet

· 01-15 18:10

Another economist's prediction: a 25bp decrease in March and June? Just listen and forget about it; these model enthusiasts always like to be armchair strategists afterward.

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WenMoon

· 01-14 07:29

Another one talking about interest rate cuts, let's see if reality will slap them in the face.

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CryptoFortuneTeller

· 01-14 07:28

As for the interest rate cut cycle, it still depends on how inflation actually progresses. I think the Aussie and Kiwi guys are a bit too optimistic. Can tariffs really just dissipate? I always feel there's more to come. Wage cooling, real estate decline... It sounds like the US economy is gradually soft landing, but who can say for sure if it will suddenly change direction?

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GateUser-7b078580

· 01-14 07:24

Data shows that the Fed is playing psychological tactics again... Although, the expectations of 25bp hikes in March and June sound quite reasonable, I'm just worried it might be all talk and no action, and they could change their stance when the time comes.

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ProxyCollector

· 01-14 07:19

ANZ Bank is really calculating things precisely. They are raising 25 basis points in March and June each, and the crypto market will take off again then.

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HallucinationGrower

· 01-14 07:07

ANZ Bank's recent prediction is quite bold; it just feels like the market isn't that obedient... As for tariffs, it will probably be a back-and-forth situation again.

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SatoshiSherpa

· 01-14 07:02

The expectation of rate cuts really depends on how this analysis from ANZ Bank turns out. 25 basis points in March and June each sounds quite reasonable, as inflation factors are indeed softening. However, the key question is whether the Federal Reserve will actually follow this logic—that's the real suspense.

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