Looking at Bitcoin through gold: When will ETF demand trigger a price parabola?

【BlockBeats】Recently, I came across an interesting perspective—an CIO of an investment institution compared the price logic of gold and Bitcoin. He said that if the demand for ETF purchases can continue, Bitcoin’s price is very likely to enter a parabolic upward phase. How to understand this? Just look at the story of gold.

Central banks started疯狂buying gold in 2022. As everyone knows, the background is that the US froze and confiscated the foreign debt assets of a certain country, which scared central banks around the world. As a result, gold purchases jumped from the original 500 tons per year to 1,000 tons, and then remained at this high level.

But here’s an interesting phenomenon—demand surged, but gold prices didn’t immediately take off. In 2022, it only rose by 2%, in 2023 by 13%, and in 2024 by 27%. The real frenzy was in 2025, with a direct increase of 65%, which is the so-called “parabola.”

The reason is simple: in the first few years, the additional demand from central banks was absorbed by those willing to sell gold. Sellers kept supplying, demand was large, but someone was willing to sell. But over time, fewer and fewer people are willing to sell. When demand remains, but the available chips to sell become increasingly tight, prices start to spiral out of control.

Now, the same script is playing out with Bitcoin and ETFs. Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, the buying volume of these ETFs has exceeded 100% of Bitcoin’s new supply. But why hasn’t the price yet entered a parabolic rise? Because people holding coins are still willing to sell. As long as this wave of ETF demand can continue—and all signs suggest it will—then one day, these sellers’ chips will be exhausted. That will be the real showtime.