Many people consider rate cuts as a major positive, but this logic is actually flawed. A rate cut is like giving antipyretic medicine to a feverish patient — the surface symptoms are alleviated, but the underlying cause remains in the body.

Why does the central bank cut interest rates? It’s usually a sign that the economy is already facing problems. Looking at history makes this clear. During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. And what happened? The stock market still experienced a significant correction. The same was true at the beginning of the 2020 pandemic — rates were cut directly to zero, yet the market still underwent intense adjustments. The crypto market’s reactions are often even more dramatic.

Many people like to track policy developments, but what truly matters? It’s liquidity. When funds in the market dry up, even the most favorable policies are just empty talk. It’s like a pond with no water — no matter how much you boast about the pond’s perfect design or high-quality materials, it won’t solve the core problem. Without capital flowing in, everything is just empty words.

Instead of obsessing over daily macro policy fluctuations, it’s better to focus on BTC’s capital flows and on-chain data. These metrics can truly reflect the market’s actual condition, rather than being misled by surface-level information.