Recently, market narratives have suddenly taken a sharp turn, with a statement from JPMorgan directly breaking the previous consensus on rate cuts. The core point is quite simple: US employment data is too strong, which means rate cuts may no longer be on the agenda, and even a rate hike could be expected by 2027.

How dramatic is this shift? Think about the US dollar's continuous weakening over the past year, and now it might face a strong reversal. Along with that, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate will also come. This is no small matter.

The market is now divided into two camps, and no one is willing to concede. One side believes that high interest rates have become the new normal, and data will continue to support this view; the other insists that the economy ultimately cannot withstand it, and rate cuts are just a matter of time. The problem is, if the former is correct, then our previous investment logic built in a low-interest-rate environment will need a major overhaul.

Looking at the Fed's shift from a dovish stance, this reflects that the resilience of the employment market has exceeded expectations. Strong employment data suggests that inflationary pressures may persist longer, making rate cuts even more difficult. As a result, the US dollar gains support, which will also have chain reactions on crypto asset valuations.

In plain terms, the future investment environment may be completely different from what we are used to. Assets supported by low interest rates may need to be re-priced, and the attractiveness of risk assets will be reassessed. How long is this logical chain? It’s really worth thinking carefully about.